By Eric Pianin
It increasingly looks as if the
Republicans will regain control of Congress this fall, with the GOP
narrowly winning back a majority in the Senate and the House GOP either
retaining or slightly building on its majority. But will the two top
Republican leaders – House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority
Leader Mitch McConnell -- be around to enjoy the spoils of victory?
Both Boehner of
Ohio and McConnell of Kentucky are crafty and highly resilient veterans
who would be difficult for their opponents to bring down even under the
best of circumstances. Yet McConnell is facing arguably one of his
toughest reelection campaigns this fall while Boehner appears headed for
another tough internal challenge from far-right House conservatives for
the speakership shortly after the mid-term election.
While some political experts say
it is far too soon to speculate on what the future holds for McConnell
and Boehner, there are clearly some troubling signs on the horizon for
the two leaders:
Mitch McConnell:
While McConnell is expected to easily fend off a primary challenge from
Tea Party favorite Matt Bevin, it will be a much rockier road for the
71-year-old leader in the general election against Alison Lundergan
Grimes, the Democratic secretary of state. Lundergan Grimes, held an
early 46 percent to 42 percent lead over McConnell in a Feb. 7 SurveyUSA
poll conducted by the Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV in Louisville. A
Rasmussen poll a few days earlier showed the two in a virtual deadlock.
Lundergan
Grimes, 35, is the daughter of former Kentucky Democratic chairman and
state representative Jerry Lundergan and the political protégé of former
Democratic President Bill Clinton. Late last month, Clinton made his
first 2014 campaign stop in Kentucky and helped Lundergan Grimes raise
more than $600,000 at a downtown Louisville luncheon. While McConnell
appears positioned to easily win the Republican primary, he'll be in the
fight of his political life to win a sixth term as Kentucky's senior
senator.
Lundergan Grimes’s lead is slender and could vanish as McConnell’s
campaign turns up the heat. But McConnell has an added problem of
surmounting an extraordinarily low approval rating among Kentucky
voters. Only 32 percent approve of McConnell, which is lower than even
President Obama’s 34 percent rating in the Blue Grass State.
With women and young voters,
McConnell trails Grimes badly, losing women 49 percent to 37 percent and
Millennials by 43 percent to 34 percent. Among voters who identified
themselves as politically "moderate," another key demographic, 55
percent said they had an unfavorable view of McConnell, compared with 15
percent for Grimes
McConnell
campaign spokeswoman Allison Moore issued a statement saying that
“We’re very comfortable about where the race stands and extremely
confident that Sen. McConnell will earn the vote of Kentuckians this
fall.”
John Boehner:
Boehner was narrowly reelected speaker of the House in January 2013
with just six votes to spare after 12 conservative Republicans defected.
The speaker’s standing with many of his most conservative members
hasn’t improved in the subsequent year and a half. The National Journal
reported last week that 40 to 50 frustrated House conservatives are
scheming to infiltrate the GOP leadership next year – possibly by
forcing Boehner to step aside immediately after the November midterm
elections.
Boehner has
survived previous insurrections with deft moves that occasionally won
the plaudits of his conservative wing. But the biggest complaint now is
that Boehner and his lieutenants are taking a “don’t rock the boat”
approach to the election campaign, and are not promoting “big ideas.”
“The
masterminds of this mutiny are trying to stay in the shadows for as
long as possible to avoid putting a target on their backs,” according to the report.
“But one Republican said the "nucleus" of the rebellion can be found
inside the House Liberty Caucus, of which he and his comrades are
members. This is not surprising, considering that some of the key
players in that group—Justin Amash of Michigan, Raul Labrador of Idaho,
and Thomas Massie of Kentucky—were among the 12 Republicans who refused
to back Boehner's reelection in January 2013.
If those numbers hold, organizers
told the National Journal they could force Boehner to step aside as
speaker in late November, when the incoming GOP conference meets for the
first time, by showing him that he won't have the votes to be reelected
in January.
Over the weekend,
Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR), chairman of the National Republican
Congressional Committee, sought to quash speculation that Boehner was in
any serious trouble.
“I’ve
not seen anything that shows me that,” Walden said on CNN’s “State of
the Union with Candy Crowley” program. “I would tell you this, nobody
works harder to maintain and grow our majority than Speaker Boehner has.
He has the toughest job in Washington, D.C. when you think about it.
And I think he’s done a good job. And I think he’ll get reelected as
speaker.”
In a sense,
Boehner’s political woes are the mirror opposite of McConnell’s.
Boehner enjoys overwhelming voter support in his Cincinnati -Dayton
district but has struggled almost from the day he first won the gavel in
November 2010 to hold together a highly fractious GOP majority in the
House. McConnell -- with a few notable exceptions among Tea Party
adherents -- enjoys widespread support among his fellow Senate
Republicans but has alienated many voters back home.
Both men at strategic moments
sought to cut deals with Obama on the budget, taxes and the debt ceiling
– but with varying degrees of success. And both have been unrelenting
critics of the president’s signature Affordable Care Act and much of his
economic and social agenda. Boehner has also ruled out any action on
immigration reform this year, despite the president’s call for action.
McConnell
and Boehner prompted an uproar among tea party Republicans in February
for their roles in passing the bill to raise the debt ceiling for
another year. Boehner passed the bill in the House with the support of
only 28 Republicans after he repeatedly failed to galvanize the majority
Republicans around any measure that would link raising the nation’s
borrowing authority to a GOP policy demand – such as eliminating a cut
in military pension benefits for some retirees or authorizing
construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.
McConnell
and Boehner have also taken a hard line against outside conservative
advocacy groups such as Club for Growth, Heritage Action and the Senate
Conservatives Fund, which are backing Tea Party challengers instead of
more establishment Republican lawmakers. Yet both realize that their
future success depends on maintaining strong ties to their party’s
conservative wing.
In his
tough-talking speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference
(CPAC) in early March, McConnell promised to fight “tooth and nail” for a
conservative agenda if the Republicans regain control of the Senate in
November and he succeeds Democrat Harry Reid of Nevada as the majority
leader.
“If I’m given the opportunity to
lead the United States Senate next year, I won’t let you down,”
McConnell said. “I will lead with integrity, we will fight tooth and
nail for conservative reforms that put this country back on track; we
will debate our ideas openly; we will vote without fear; and we will
govern with the understanding that the future of this country depends on
our success.”
Ron Bonjean, a
former House Republican communications strategist, said on Monday he is
betting that both leaders will survive this fall. Talk of their
possible demise “is very hypothetical,” he said. “And I do think both
leaders will likely be back. “To try to oust a sitting leader in the
Senate is very difficult, and all we’re hearing right now is rumors in
the media regarding conservatives going after Boehner.”
“I
guess I could say that if both leaders didn’t come back – which is
probably unlikely – it would be a shame because they worked so hard to
achieve a Republican majority, should we take back the Senate.
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