by Rob Knowles
First it was Iowa, then it was South Carolina, then it was Super Tuesday. With each primary or caucus, we waited for the fall of Trump, and every time, he came out better than expected. After Super Tuesday, the idea of a Trump nomination started to feel inevitable. But that’s not the truth. Not at all.
While Americans watched in horror as Donald Trump, the man who always looks like he’s in the middle of saying the word “prune,” cleaned up in primaries and caucuses across the nation, Ted Cruz
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver tweeted that while early voters in Louisiana favored Trump by an overwhelming 23.8 percent, Cruz more than closed the gap with same-day voters, beating Trump by 0.4 percent.
The tide is turning. Saturday, Cruz actually gained more delegates than Trump. While Trump has 384 total delegates, Cruz isn’t far behind with 300.
Perhaps it was the last debate in which Marco Rubio
- Cruz: 48.2%
- Trump: 23.3%
- Rubio: 16.7%
- Cruz: 45.9%
- Trump: 32.6%
- Kasich: 12.2%
- Rubio: 8%
- Trump: 41.4%
- Cruz: 37.8%
- Rubio: 11.2%
- Trump: 35.9%
- Cruz: 31.6%
- Rubio: 16.4%
Not only does Ted Cruz
Granted, all of these polls were taken before Super Tuesday, the debate, and the Saturday primaries, but if those primaries were any indication of the trajectory of the Florida vote, it’s not looking good for Rubio. Even if he were to lose by just a slim margin, it would mean the death of his campaign, and Trump gaining 99 more delegates, as Florida is a winner-take-all state.
As we approach the winner-take-all states, it becomes that much more urgent that Cruz and Rubio stop splitting the anti-Trump vote.
To a much lesser extent, Kasich is sucking up some oxygen as well. Though he hasn’t won a single state, and his delegate count is pathetic, he’s made an impression, coming in second in Vermont. He’s also polling in second place in his home state of Ohio–a winner-take-all state with a delegate count of 66.
However, despite Kasich’s sky-high popularity in his home state, Cruz is just five points behind the governor in the latest poll.
We’re at a juncture at which every day matters exponentially more than the last. If Rubio and Kasich don’t let go of their ambition, and realize their chances of defeating Trump are nil so long as the votes are split, we will lose the nomination to the Orange Crush, a man who will utterly tarnish the Republican Party for a generation. Ted Cruz