> Five independent polls published in race, all five polls show majority of Republicans don't support Cornyn
> Cornyn not releasing poll numbers, indicating trouble for incumbent
> Poll was conducted before Cornyn voted to raise debt limit, angering GOP voters
> ‘The buzzards are circling over John Cornyn’
WASHINGTON – Just 22 months after Ted Cruz’s upset victory over Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Texas Republicans want to toss another high-profile establishment Republican into a runoff for a U.S. Senate seat against his conservative challenger.
A new Gravis/Human Events poll shows incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) with only 43 percent support in the March 4 Texas Republican primary, forcing him into a May 27 runoff against U.S. Rep Steve Stockman (R-TX 36.)
Stockman is in second place, grabbing 28 percent and quickly closing in on Cornyn. The remaining 29 percent were undecided.
The poll was conducted before voters knew Cornyn voted the evening of Feb. 12 to kill a Ted Cruz filibuster and advance a total suspension of Obama’s debt limit until March 2015. Cornyn’s vote to raise the debt limit set off a firestorm of opposition to him among Texas Republican voters.
Gravis Marketing conducted the poll Feb. 10-12 for “Human Events,” a prominent national conservative newspaper. It was published Monday in “Human Events” and was not commissioned by any campaign or conducted with any campaign’s knowledge.
This is the fifth poll published in Cornyn’s race. All five show Cornyn forced into a runoff. Research by polling experts shows undecided voters usually do not break for the incumbents and incumbents usually lose runoff elections.
“The buzzards are circling over John Cornyn. A runoff is an incumbent’s death sentence,” said Stockman spokesman Donny Ferguson. “This is why Cornyn refuses to release his internal poll numbers.”
“John Cornyn has been a statewide elected official for 22 years and has spent millions on TV ads. If he isn’t over 50 percent by now, history shows won’t happen in just 14 days,” said Ferguson. “Meanwhile, Stockman only started up his campaign less than 90 days ago. We fully expect Cornyn to now begin producing phony polls and try to put out fires.”
“Texans are voting to fire Cornyn because voted twice to fund Obamacare. Texans are voting to fire Cornyn because just gave Obama a blank spending check. Both times John Cornyn did it by stabbing Ted Cruz in the back,” said Ferguson.
“Texans want a senator who stands beside Ted Cruz with his vote. John Cornyn stands behind Ted Cruz with a knife. John Cornyn has been using Ted Cruz’s back as his personal cutlery holder,” said Ferguson.
This is the fifth independent poll published in Cornyn’s race. All five show Cornyn failing to win over 50 percent. Cornyn has refused to release his internal polling results and has begun directly attacking Stockman, which usually indicates a candidate is in trouble.
A University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll conducted between Oct. 18 and Oct. 27, 2013 found Cornyn with only 39 percent support among likely Republican primary voters, far below where a two-term incumbent and member of Senate leadership should be.
An Oct. 26, 2013 Gravis poll showed Cornyn failing to win a majority in a two-way race against five different candidates. It showed Cornyn getting only 41 percent against Stockman, whom many voters were not familiar with.
A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Nov. 1-4, 2013 found “49% [of Republican primary voters] say they would like their candidate next year to be someone more conservative, compared to only 33% who say they support Cornyn.”
PPP concluded “John Cornyn is in grave danger of losing a primary next year if a serious campaign is run against him. Cornyn's approval with Republican primary voters is only 46%, with 33% of voters disapproving of him.”
Even a poll by WPA Opinion Research conducted Dec. 10-12, 2013, and touted by Cornyn himself, showed Cornyn only at 50 percent among likely Republican primary voters. At the time of the poll many voters were not aware Cornyn had an opponent.
Under the new Gravis poll, in order to avoid a runoff Cornyn would have to win over 27 percent of the undecided vote, who are not already backing Cornyn despite high name identification and millions of dollars in advertising.
Research by Nick Panagakis, a member of the National Council on Public Polls, found “an incumbent leading with less than 50% (against one challenger) is frequently in trouble; how much depends on how much less than 50%. A common pattern has been for incumbents ahead with 50% or less to end up losing.”
Panagakis’ study of 155 polls conducted in the final two weeks of a campaign found “over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger.”
In the 2012 Texas Republican primary for U.S. Senate, the heavily-favored Dewhurst finished ahead of Cruz by a wide 45 percent to 34 percent margin. Dewhurst lost the runoff.
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