by: Kevin "Coach" Collins
In 2008 Barack Obama won Oregon by 17 points but a new SurveyUSA poll
shows he is leading by just 4 points. If that was all the bad news out
of The Beaver State it would be bad enough for Obama, but the news gets
worse when more realistic standards of voter sentiment are applied to
data as presented.
In response to this news, the Oregonian (one of the foulest of the Democrats’ mouth piece news outlets) points to the difference between the numbers of registered Democrats/Republicans/Independents who voted in Oregon’s 2010 elections and the breakdown SurveyUSA used to put its report together.
By that measurement there are 5.6% more Democrats .05% more Republicans BUT 6.1% fewer Independents in the State, and herein lies a serious flaw in the Oregonian’s “happy face” analysis.
While Oregon was not one of the states caught up in the TEA party revolution in 2010, much has happened since then. For Oregon to have moved 13 points to the Right since 2008 something must be happening there. Arguing that 2010 Party breakdown numbers hold true today offers little comfort to those rooting for Obama because the national Party breakdown is 35 R 33D and 32 I as reported by Rasmussen. Since SurveyUSA uses only “registered” voters instead of “Likely” voters as Rasmussen does, Obama’s fans must choose which set of numbers they want to follow: Rasmussen which says Obama is down 7 points nationally or SurveyUSA which has him up in Oregon by 4 points and surveys a less reliable sampling group. Then there is voter enthusiasm. The latest national survey of enthusiasm levels among both Democrats and Republicans done by Gallup shows that by 53/45 Republicans are more enthusiastic to vote. Those who doubt the enthusiasm gap is this large have to explain the numbers from West Virginia North Carolina and Wisconsin we saw last Tuesday. If Oregon is SO Democrat that it is immune to these national trends as the Oregonian would have us believe why has Obama lost 13 points since 2008?
In response to this news, the Oregonian (one of the foulest of the Democrats’ mouth piece news outlets) points to the difference between the numbers of registered Democrats/Republicans/Independents who voted in Oregon’s 2010 elections and the breakdown SurveyUSA used to put its report together.
By that measurement there are 5.6% more Democrats .05% more Republicans BUT 6.1% fewer Independents in the State, and herein lies a serious flaw in the Oregonian’s “happy face” analysis.
While Oregon was not one of the states caught up in the TEA party revolution in 2010, much has happened since then. For Oregon to have moved 13 points to the Right since 2008 something must be happening there. Arguing that 2010 Party breakdown numbers hold true today offers little comfort to those rooting for Obama because the national Party breakdown is 35 R 33D and 32 I as reported by Rasmussen. Since SurveyUSA uses only “registered” voters instead of “Likely” voters as Rasmussen does, Obama’s fans must choose which set of numbers they want to follow: Rasmussen which says Obama is down 7 points nationally or SurveyUSA which has him up in Oregon by 4 points and surveys a less reliable sampling group. Then there is voter enthusiasm. The latest national survey of enthusiasm levels among both Democrats and Republicans done by Gallup shows that by 53/45 Republicans are more enthusiastic to vote. Those who doubt the enthusiasm gap is this large have to explain the numbers from West Virginia North Carolina and Wisconsin we saw last Tuesday. If Oregon is SO Democrat that it is immune to these national trends as the Oregonian would have us believe why has Obama lost 13 points since 2008?
No comments:
Post a Comment